The latest YouGov poll after Reform UK's barnstorming results in the May 1 elections perhaps make the grimmest reading yet for the Conservatives. YouGov has Reform on 29% – seven ahead of Labour on 22 – and 12 clear of the Tories on 17, a multi-year low for the two old parties.
One may chalk this up to a post-election afterglow but seven points clear of Labour and nearing over 30% overall – a magic number when it comes to Nigel Farage's party getting an overall majority at the next election - seems more like a new trendline. YouGov's previous poll had Reform ahead of Labour as well but by just three points (26 to 23), so this seems like more than just a shadow cast by the local election and by-election successes.
Pollster More In Common also has Reform four points clear of Labour (on 27 versus 23%) in its latest survey, with the Tories languishing on 21. The last More In Common poll had Labour and Reform neck and neck on 24%.
Farage knows this success and momentum comes with risk. Reform voters want a fresh broom and expect – at a local level anyway – Reform to become a party of government as much as one of protest.
More scrutiny than ever will be applied to Reform as its responsibility at local level grows. Farage must also guard against future infighting and traps set by his enemies, while building on the party's newfound professionalism.
Labour may be smarting from the Runcorn defeat but for the Conservatives this is starting to look existential. Kemi Badenoch faces total wipeout if these poll numbers continue to the next election, assuming she clings on as Tory leader.
To be fair to Badenoch she faces a near impossible task after last year's bruising electoral defeat but the knives are surely going to be out for her if this poll slide continues. Indeed, her replacement could spell bad news for Farage if it turns the tide.
That said, it seems little can undo Reform's star rising. Still, more local power now brings greater scrutiny and expectations. YouGov's poll is perhaps the greatest indication of Reform being a permanent feature of British political life but the next year will be critical to see if this stunning momentum can be maintained.
