Reeves was comldetely out of her depth from day one at No. 11 and has wrecked the UK economy.
We all knew that, of course, but this morning we’ve got confirmation of how bad she's been from an independent and authoritative source.
There’s no escaping the fallout, although I'm sure Reeves will try.
She’ll no doubt blame the Tories (again). She might blame Donald Trump (again). She can blame the next pope if she likes, it won’t make a jot of difference.
This morning, the proof is in. A damning report from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) lays it bare.
It says the record tax hikes and spending splurge Reeves pushed through in last October’s horror Budget have sunk the economy and ballooned the fiscal black hole to £57billion.
By my crude maths, Reeves owns £35billion of that.
It took the Tories 14 years to dig their smaller £22billion hole, and they had a global pandemic to deal with. Reeves has broadened and deepened that in 10 months flat.
Which takes some doing. Especially since the economy was growing when she took over, and nobody has been locked down in their homes.
Reeves promised us "difficult decisions". Unfortunately, she took the wrong ones.
Now she’s stuck.
The NIESR’s assessment is brutal. Its economist Benjamin Caswell said Reeves has done more to damage business confidence and choke off growth than Trump’s trade tariffs ever could.
Trump’s trade war may shave 0.1% off our GDP. Reeves’s tax raid has done far more damage.
Caswell said: “Tariffs have engendered a lot of uncertainty but that shouldn’t let the Government off the hook. There’s been a lot of confusion driven by the Spring Statement and Budget measures.”
Last October's Budget was particularly bruising, with £25billion worth of employer's national insurance hikes squeezing already wafer thin business margins.
Caswell said companies are bracing for another tax raid in the autumn. They’re holding back on investment, hiring is slowing and vacancies have “fallen very dramatically” as a result. All thanks to Reeves.
It gets worse.
Instead of raising more tax, her Budget mayhem will actually cut the tax take.
Caswell said HMRC receipts are already falling as the economy weakens, despite the heavier tax burden.
And he doesn’t think Reeves will hit either of her fiscal rules either. These are rules that she continues to call "iron-clad". They will certainly sink like iron.
The NIESR has slashed its growth protection projection forecast for 2025 from 1.5% to 1.2%. Thanks to Reeves, growth will now be weaker every year for the rest of the decade.
It’s not alone in blaming Reeves.
The International Monetary Fund has also named Reeves as the main cause of the UK’s downturn, saying “domestic factors are probably the biggest ones” in triggering its own growth downgrade.
Caswell said Reeves may be forced to raise taxes AGAIN in this autumn’s Budget to plug the growing gap in the public finances. Exactly as I forecast last month.
His suggestion? She should scrap the two national insurance cuts introduced by Jeremy Hunt. That would claw back £10.7billion a year.
Unfortunately, it would also leave 30million workers worse off. Which means they would have less to spend, which will further hit growth.
It’s a total mess.
Yes, Reeves inherited a bad situation. But her blunders have made it far, far worse. There’s no denying it after today's brutal takedown.
And we’ll all pay the price at the next Budget.