Sir Keir Starmer's "toxic" new benefit cuts will hit 800,000 people, a thinktank has warned. Hundreds of thousands fewer people will receive the Personal Independence Payment (PIP) if Government proposals to tighten eligibility take effect.

PIP is given to people who have extra care or mobility needs as a result of a long-term physical disability or mental health condition. There are two parts to the benefit – a daily living element and a mobility component. Under proposals first outlined in detail by Chancellor Rachel Reeves in her Spring Statement, the daily living part would be tightened.

Eligibility depends on a system where a certain number of points are awarded for tasks such as getting dressed and washing. Zero means there is no difficulty while 12 is used for the most severe cases.

From November 2026, the Government wants people to score at least four points for one activity rather than qualifying for support with a lower score for a wider range of tasks.

In a bid to justify the changes, the Government points to the number of disabled working-age people in England and Wales having risen by 17% since the Covid pandemic while the number of people receiving incapacity or disability benefits has increased by 34%.

The implication is those benefits are going to people which they weren’t meant to help.

But the New Economics Foundation (NEF) has argued that "in reality" many disabled people don't claim financial support from the Government because they aren't aware of it, are put off by the application process or don't feel they need extra help.

The think tank also said a rise in financial hardship across the country has been a "key driver" of the increase in disability benefits, which it said casts "serious doubts" on the Government's justification for cutting the payments.

An analysis by the NEF has shown the proportion of disabled people claiming incapacity and/or disability benefits was 40% before Covid and has grown to 46% since.

The NEF said that while the Government has argued the rise in rates of disability is out of step with the rise in those claiming disability and incapacity benefits, this could just be down to an increased, legitimate take-up rate among disabled people, rather than increased claims from those for whom the benefit wasn't intended.

Max Mosley, Senior Economist at the NEF, said: "Our analysis suggests PIP is going to exactly the sort of people it is intended to support, but that higher rates of disability and financial hardship are driving more people to claim.

"The Government’s plans to restrict access to PIP will lead to hundreds of thousands of disabled people missing out on support they very much need. "This could well prove to be as politically toxic for the Government as cutting the Winter Fuel Payment."

A Department for Work and Pensions spokesman said: "To be clear, there will be no immediate changes to Personal Independence Payment and the majority of people who are currently getting PIP will continue to receive it.

"As part of our Plan for Change, we’re creating a sustainable welfare system that genuinely supports people into work and out of poverty - backed by £1 billion additional employment support funding to guarantee tailored help.

"Alongside this, we are supporting people into work with our Get Britain Working White Paper, and introducing the Fair Repayment Rate, which will increase financial security, tackle poverty, and boost living standards up and down the country."

NEF's analysis was published on the same day MPs were to debate the Government's proposals. It also came amid continued fallout from Labour's drubbing in the local elections and Runcorn and Helsby by-election on May 1.

Former Transport Secretary Louise Haigh has led a chorus of calls from Labour MPs who want Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer to change tack by rethinking welfare cuts.

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer on Tuesday acknowledged his Government needed to "explain the decisions" it has taken" after a "disappointing" set of election results, but his press secretary said the Government will not be "blown off course" in response.