British taxpayers are being landed with an estimated monthly bill of £5million to accommodate Afghan nationals whose asylum claims have been turned down – even though the Government has no way of sending them back. The Home Office, led by Home Secretary Yvette Cooper, has significantly increased its rejection rate for Afghan asylum seekers, having revised internal guidance last summer.

The updated policy, issued in August, claims there is “limited” evidence that all Afghans are at risk under Taliban rule and makes clear vague fears are no longer sufficient to qualify for asylum. As a result, the number of Afghan nationals refused asylum but granted the right to appeal has shot up – from just 70 cases in 2022 to more than 2,600 last year. The increase has left ministers grappling with the financial and logistical fallout of a system that cannot deport individuals to a regime it does not recognise.

An analysis by The Telegraph suggests that if just three-quarters of those rejected appeals, in line with previous trends, and waited a year for the outcome, it would cost the public purse at least £56 million annually. National Audit Office estimates of how much it costs to provide accommodation and support to each asylum seeker were used as a yardstick.

However, in practice, the delays are likely to be far longer, given that Britain’s immigration tribunal system is heavily backlogged, and appeals can take years. During that time, housing and subsistence support are still the state’s responsibility.

Even those who exhaust the appeals process are unlikely to be removed from the UK any time soon. Britain lacks a return agreement with the Taliban-run administration in Kabul.

Marley Morris, from the Institute for Public Policy Research, warned: “If the Government wants to meet its target on exiting asylum hotels, then it needs to look at the refusals of Afghans. It is a group who are likely to appeal, may well win and even if they don’t, they can’t be returned anyway.”

Jamie Bell, a solicitor at Duncan Lewis, described the situation as “a complete mess”.

He explained: “It might take between one and two years for the cases to go to court. I would be confident that a lot of people who appeal will win. What is the point in overburdening the system and putting people through that?”

A Home Office spokesperson said: “These figures are purely speculative and based on historical data, which may not accurately reflect future costs.

“This Government has been clear about its intent to remove people with no right to be here, evidenced through a surge in the number of returns – since coming into power, we have removed 24,000 people with no right to be in the UK, as well as increased asylum decision making by 52%.

“And to help stop lengthy legal battles and move failed asylum seekers out of hotels faster, the courts will be given a new 24-week target to decide appeals brought by those receiving accommodation support, or who are foreign offenders.”