Nigel Farage’s Reform UK is set to win in eight of the top 10 most flood-prone constituencies in England at the next general election despite its “climate u-turns”, campaigners have said. Current Reform MP Richard Tice’s Boston and Skegness constituency came in the top spot with 38.5% of properties at medium or high risk of flooding from rivers and seas. This is followed by South Holland the Deepings (31.3%), Goole and Pocklington (25.2%), North East Cambridgeshire (24.9%), Louth and Horncastle (18.6%), Selby (16.2%), Runnymede and Weybridge (15.9%), Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes (15.4%), Doncaster North (14.8%), Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme (13.8%).

All except for Goole and Pocklington, and Runnymede and Weybridge, are projected to elect a Reform MP, according to data published this month by More in Common. Global Witness and Round Our Way said that on average, constituencies where Reform UK is projected to win by 2029 have the highest percentage of properties at risk of flooding compared to any other political party.

Reform’s 2024 election manifesto called for the scrapping of “net zero” targets and advocated for increased extraction of fossil fuels.

These “climate u-turns” could lead to more extreme weather and flood-risk for many of its target voters, the analysts said.

Flossie Boyd, senior campaigner at Global Witness said: “The climate crisis is no stranger to millions of us up and down the country. Every year people are experiencing the very real effects of it on homes, farms and towns, with wetter winters, extreme heat waves, and increasingly devastating storms.

“This data shows that taking climate measures, like flood defences, seriously, could be key to both protecting communities and winning over voters.”

“To pay for it, politicians need to consider higher taxes on big business, like massively wealthy fossil fuel firms.”

Sofie Jenkinson, co-director at Round Our Way, a not-for-profit that supports people affected by the impacts of climate change, said: “We are all sadly getting used to the erratic weather climate change brings, like heavier downpours that cause our rivers to flood more often.

“As this research shows, this is a big threat to many of our homes. It is therefore no surprise that polling shows the quiet majority of us want practical action from politicians - like cutting pollution and preventing more floods.

“Given that Reform is hoping to do well in many of the areas this analysis highlights are at high risk of flooding due to the weather extremes that climate change brings, it's odd to see them on TV busy questioning the basic science, which helps no one.”

A Reform UK spokesman said: “Net zero is causing the British people to pay higher energy prices, the highest in the western world. Reform UK are clear, we want to lower energy prices for hard working British people with oil, gas and clean nuclear energy.

“Lowering energy prices and scrapping net zero does not mean we won’t invest in flood defences.“