Vladimir Putin will not show up for peace talks because his 25-year stranglehold on Russia ends if he yields, experts say.
Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky has agreed to an offer of direct talks aimed at achieving peace, but Moscow said it would refuse to honour a ceasefire before and during any meeting.
The showdown was tentatively set for Istanbul with US President Donald Trump saying he would show up, but the meeting has yet to be confirmed.
The apparent foot-dragging by the Kremlin was seen as a deliberate ploy to continue a bloody war with its neighbour that has rumbled on for more than three years and left at least 250,000 dead.
Anton Gerashchenko, former deputy minister at the Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs and a trusted lieutenant of Zelensky, said: “Why is Putin stalling for time, lying, and clinging to the war? His power relies on war.
“The end [of the war in Ukraine] means the emergence of opposition (and possibly an armed one), huge economic problems that cannot be blamed on the war, and redistribution of assets and property.
“Putin's power model cannot exist outside of war because, with peace, he loses control over the country.”
Mr Gerashchenko added: “A part of Russian society, fuelled by propaganda, interprets peace talks as betrayal, and the end of the war will naturally lead to the emergence of an armed and ideologically-motivated opposition inside the country.
“Putin is very much afraid of his own army. Keeping it in line is only possible at the front in an infinitely protracted war, so we see the Kremlin delaying a real peaceful solution to the war by any means necessary.”
“The ceasefire will not play to the advantage of the Kremlin elites and Putin himself.”
President Trump is due to visit Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar this week but said he would dash to Turkey to mediate between the warring countries if the two leaders show up for face-to-face talks.
He said: “I've got so many meetings, but I was thinking about actually flying over there. There's a possibility of it, I guess, if I think things can happen, but we've got to get it done.”
President Zelensky said he “will be waiting for Putin in Turkey on Thursday personally”.
The prospect of peace comes despite Russia launching a flurry of drone attacks , according to Ukrainian security sources.
Moscow has rejected calls by America and Europe for an unconditional ceasefire, but indicated it would participate in talks without preconditions. It is yet to elaborate on that.
Ukraine, along with its “Coalition of the Willing” European allies, has demanded Moscow accept a truce before negotiations start. The Kremlin refused and instead indicated it would participate in direct negotiations instead.
European leaders including [Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron said failure to adhere to a ceasefire would see Russia slapped with further sanctions.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov refused to say who might travel to Istanbul for Thursday’s muted meeting in Istanbul.
He said: “Overall, we’re determined to seriously look for ways to achieve a long-term peaceful settlement. That is all.”
Since its "special military operation" invasion in 2022 Russian forces have taken around one-fifth of Ukraine in Europe's biggest conflict since the Second World War.
Kyiv has refused to concede any territory to Russia as part of a peace deal, including Crimea which is regarded as occupied Ukrainian territory, while Moscow wants assurances its neighbour will not join the Nato military alliance with the encroachment to its border having angered Putin.
Putin took charge of Russia when former President Boris Yeltsin stepped down on New Year's Eve in 1999 with his parting instruction to his successor, then Prime Minister, being: "Take care of Russia!"
President Trump said he was optimistic about the prospect of talks, saying there is “the potential for a good meeting”.
Mr Macron said: “Ending the war in Ukraine is the goal we share with President Trump.
“Ukraine is ready for an unconditional ceasefire. President Zelensky reaffirmed it to me [at Pope Francis’s funeral]. He wishes to work alongside the Americans and the Europeans to make it happen.
“It is now up to Putin to prove that he truly wants peace. [His] proposed negotiations are a first step, but they are not sufficient. An unconditional ceasefire is not preceded by negotiations, by definition."
